An Idiot's Guide to the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary
Will voters be looking at another Trump v. Biden showdown in November 2024? Or will another candidate emerge victorious? Only time will tell...
It’s been a while since we’ve written/discussed anything political here on The Phoenix Quill.
To that effect, we thought we’d run for you a quick primary on the current state of the 2024 Republican Primary for President of the United States. The primary itself may still be a long way off, but the candidate field is starting to shape up. Among those who have already declared their candidacy are former President Donald Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.
How will this all play out?
The Republican presidential primary is a series of state-by-state elections that determine who will be the party's nominee for president. The candidate who wins the most delegates in the primaries and caucuses will become the nominee.
Delegates are individuals chosen to represent their state or territory at the Republican National Convention. The number of delegates each state has is based on its population. Several key states — including California, Texas, Pennsylvania, and Florida — will see their delegate and electoral vote counts change in 2024 as a result of the decennial U.S. Census conducted in 2020.
The primaries and caucuses traditionally begin in February of an election year; however, it appears the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primaries will take place in January this time around.
Who are the leading candidates?
As you can see above, there are (once again) quite a few candidates running in the GOP primary for president. Yet one candidate has emerged as the clear favorite among primary voters:
That’s right, friends… former President Donald Trump is ahead by more than 2-to-1 over his nearest challenger (DeSantis) in national polling. And all of this is despite having THREE indictments levied against him in recent months, and the potential for more between now and Election Day 2024!
It remains to be seen if another challenger (DeSantis, Pence, Haley, etc.) will be able to close the gap in the months to come, or if the nomination is Trump’s to lose at this point.
Will there be any debates?
As in past cycles, the Republican National Committee has commissioned a series of official debates for candidates running in the GOP primary for president. Because of the sheer number of candidates running, however, the Party set a series of polling and donor thresholds for the debates to limit candidate participation.
For the first debate, scheduled for August 23rd in Milwaukee, the candidates who have already passed the RNC’s polling and donor thresholds are:
former President Donald Trump*
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis
former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie
South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott
former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley
North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum
tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.
Others, such as former Vice President Mike Pence, have met one but not both of the thresholds. Trump has not committed to participating in any of the debates.